Is the Niseko property boom over?
Monday, June 25th, 2007Is the Niseko property boom over? The boom that saw land prices in Niseko go up 5 to 10 times in 5 years? That saw Niseko-Hirafu properties appreciate 30% last year, the highest in Japan? The boom that has fueled non-stop all-season development here in the central Niseko-Hirafu village?
There are several schools of thought, that generally coalesce around an optimistic: “The profit-taking has occurred, development is underway. It is no longer a high-return investment, but a lifestyle choice that will retain its value while providing respectable returns.” So says the man on the street.
Time will tell. 80% of the property in central Niseko-Hirafu has been sold at least once in the last few years. We forget exactly how many blocks did not have title changes during that time, but they were the exception, not the norm.
Land prices have indeed stopped appreciating, so the emphasis has moved onto developing the acquired properties. This continues unabated. Condominiums and homes throughout Niseko are generally selling at AUD $400,000 and up, with some high profile properties in the “upper village” fetching up to and over $1,000,000.
Most of the local Japanese are skeptical as they have seen this before, during the bubble era. People flocked to Niseko with bubble cash to play golf and tennis in the summer and ski in the winter. Once the bubble popped, so did Niseko’s property market. Some claim that prices now have not even reached the peak bubble prices, and there is some concern that another “bubble”, be it Aussie or otherwise, could jeopardize the gains made here.
Well, we don’t think what we’ve witnessed here is a bubble so to speak. What we witnessed is something amazing that only happens when different groups (in this case Japanese people and Australian skiers) value things differently. The Aussies who arrived here realized that marketed appropriately, to the right customers (Aussie, Kiwi, and Asia-Expat ski bums) they were sitting on a gold mine.
Although prices have rocketed through the roof, an amazing thing in a country that has been in an economic funk for the better part of two decades, there is still the possibility that prices will go higher. Considering what it costs to buy a place in Vail, you could even call it likely, particularly if the infrastructure in Niseko catches up with the snow.
Our advice is still… BUY. Maybe you shouldn’t expect to double your money… but you definitely should expect to experience the world’s deepest, finest, most consistent powder snow. See you on the slopes!


